NOAA's State of the Climate 2012: 2012 was one of the 10 warmest years on record globally

The end of weak La Niña, unprecedented Arctic warmth influenced 2012 climate conditions

NOAA, August 6, 2013

The 2012 State of the Climate report is available online.
(Credit: NOAA)

See 15-slide pdf of the presentation here:  http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/bams-sotc/2012/sotc-2012-webinar-briefing-slides.pdf

Worldwide, 2012 was among the 10 warmest years on record according to the 2012 State of the Climate report released online today by the American Meteorological Society (AMS). The peer-reviewed report, with scientists from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., serving as lead editors, was compiled by 384 scientists from 52 countries (highlights, full report). It provides a detailed update on global climate indicators, notable weather events, and other data collected by environmental monitoring stations and instruments on land, sea, ice, and sky.  

“Many of the events that made 2012 such an interesting year are part of the long-term trends we see in a changing and varying climate — carbon levels are climbing, sea levels are rising, Arctic sea ice is melting, and our planet as a whole is becoming a warmer place," said Acting NOAA Administrator Kathryn D. Sullivan, Ph.D. “This annual report is well-researched, well-respected, and well-used; it is a superb example of the timely, actionable climate information that people need from NOAA to help prepare for extremes in our ever-changing environment."

Conditions in the Arctic were a major story of 2012, with the region experiencing unprecedented change and breaking several records. Sea ice shrank to its smallest “summer minimum” extent since satellite records began 34 years ago. In addition, more than 97% of the Greenland ice sheet showed some form of melt during the summer, four times greater than the 1981–2010 average melt extent.

Temperature in 2012 compared to the 1981-2010 average. Credit: NOAA Climate.gov, based on NCDC data. See more.

The report used dozens of climate indicators to track and identify changes and overall trends to the global climate system. These indicators include greenhouse gas concentrations, temperature of the lower and upper atmosphere, cloud cover, sea surface temperature, sea-level rise, ocean salinity, sea ice extent and snow cover. Each indicator includes thousands of measurements from multiple independent datasets. 

Highlights:

• Warm temperature trends continue near Earth’s surface: Four major independent datasets show 2012 was among the 10 warmest years on record, ranking either 8th or 9th, depending upon the dataset used. The United States and Argentina had their warmest year on record.
  
• La Niña dissipates into neutral conditions:  A weak La Niña dissipated during spring 2012 and, for the first time in several years, neither El Niño nor La Niña, which can dominate regional weather and climate conditions around the globe, prevailed for the majority of the year. 
  
• The Arctic continues to warm; sea ice extent reaches record low: The Arctic continued to warm at about twice the rate compared with lower latitudes. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June each reached new record lows. Arctic sea ice minimum extent (1.32 million square miles, September 16) was the lowest of the satellite era. This is 18 percent lower than the previous record low extent of 1.61 million square miles that occurred in 2007 and 54 percent lower than the record high minimum ice extent of 2.90 million square miles that occurred in 1980. The temperature of permafrost, or permanently frozen land, reached record-high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred July 11–12 on the Greenland ice sheet when 97 percent of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt this time of year.
  
• Antarctica sea ice extent reaches record high: The Antarctic maximum sea ice extent reached a record high of 7.51 million square miles on September 26. This is 0.5 percent higher than the previous record high extent of 7.47 million square miles that occurred in 2006 and seven percent higher than the record low maximum sea ice extent of 6.96 million square miles that occurred in 1986.
  
• Sea surface temperatures increase: Four independent datasets indicate that the globally averaged sea surface temperature for 2012 was among the 11 warmest on record.  After a 30-year period from 1970 to 1999 of rising global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000–2012 exhibited little trend. Part of this difference is linked to the prevalence of La Niña-like conditions during the 21st century, which typically lead to lower global sea surface temperatures.
  
• Ocean heat content remains near record levels: Heat content in the upper 2,300 feet, or a little less than one-half mile, of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Overall increases from 2011 to 2012 occurred between depths of 2,300 to 6,600 feet and even in the deep ocean.
  
• Sea level reaches record high: Following sharp decreases in global sea level in the first half of 2011 that were linked to the effects of La Niña, sea levels rebounded to reach record highs in 2012. Globally, sea level has been increasing at an average rate of 3.2 ± 0.4 mm per year over the past two decades.
  
• Sea ice concentration reached a new record low in mid-September 2012. Credit: NOAA Climate.gov, based on NSIDC data. See more. 
  
  
  Ocean salinity trends continue: Continuing a trend that began in 2004, oceans were saltier than average in areas of high evaporation, including the central tropical North Pacific, and fresher than average in areas of high precipitation, including the north central Indian Ocean, suggesting that precipitation is increasing in already rainy areas and evaporation is intensifying in drier locations.
  
• Tropical cyclones near average: Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms, compared with the 1981–2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity.
  
• Greenhouse gases climb: Major greenhouse gas concentrations, including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, continued to rise during 2012. Following a slight decline in manmade emissions associated with the global economic downturn, global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record high in 2011 of 9.5 ± 0.5 petagrams (1,000,000,000,000,000 grams) of carbon , and a new record of 9.7 ± 0.5 petagrams of carbon  is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, reaching a global average of 392.6 ppm for the year. In spring 2012, for the first time, the atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceeded 400 ppm at several Arctic observational sites.
  
• Cool temperature trends continue in Earth’s lower stratosphere: The average lower stratospheric temperature, about six to ten miles above the Earth’s surface, for 2012 was record to near-record cold, depending on the dataset. Increasing greenhouse gases and decline of stratospheric ozone tend to cool the stratosphere while warming the planet near-surface layers.

The 2012 State of the Climate report is peer-reviewed and published annually as a special supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. This year marks the 23rd edition of the report, which is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides to government, the business sector, academia, and the public to support informed decision-making. The full report can be viewed online. 

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels. 

WMO Annual Climate Statement Confirms 2012 as Among Top Ten Warmest Years

Posted on 3 May 2013 by John Hartz on Skeptical Science

This article is a reprint of a press release posted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on May 2, 2013.

The World Meteorological Organization’s Statement on the Status of the GlobalClimate says that 2012 joined the ten previous years as one of the warmest — at ninth place — on record despite the cooling influence of a La Niña episode early in the year.

The 2012 global land and ocean surface temperature during January–December 2012 is estimated to be 0.45°C (±0.11°C) above the 1961–1990 average of 14.0°C. This is the ninth warmest year since records began in 1850 and the 27th consecutive year that the global land and ocean temperatures were above the 1961–1990 average, according to the statement. The years 2001–2012 were all among the top 13 warmest years on record.

“Although the rate of warming varies from year to year due to natural variability caused by the El Niño cycle, volcanic eruptions and other phenomena, the sustained warming of the lower atmosphere is a worrisome sign,” said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud. “The continued upward trend in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and the consequent increased radiative forcing of the Earth’s atmosphere confirm that the warming will continue,” he said.

“The record loss of Arctic sea ice in August-September — 18% less than the previous record low of 2007 of 4.17 million km2 — was also a disturbing sign of climate change,” said Mr Jarraud. “The year 2012 saw many other extremes as well, such as droughts and tropical cyclones. Natural climate variability has always resulted in such extremes, but the physical characteristics of extreme weather and climate events are being increasingly shaped by climate change,” he said.

“For example, because global sea levels are now about 20 cm higher than they were in 1880, storms such as Hurricane Sandy are bringing more coastal flooding than they would have otherwise,” said Mr Jarraud.

WMO’s annual statements gather the key climate events of each year. The series stands today as an internationally rec­ognized authoritative source of information about temperatures, precipitation, extreme events, tropical cyclones, and sea ice extent. The newly released statement provided in-depth analysis of regional trends as part of a WMOdrive to provide more information at regional and national levels to support adaptation toclimate variability and change.

The 2012 climate assessment, the most detailed to date, will inform discussion at WMO’s Executive Council meeting (15-23 May 2013).

Above-average temperatures were observed during 2012 across most of the globe’s land surface areas, most notably North America, southern Europe, western Russia, parts of northern Africa and southern South America. Nonetheless, cooler-than-average conditions were observed across Alaska, parts of northern and eastern Australia, and central Asia.

Precipitation across the globe was slightly above the 1961-1990 long-term average.  There were drier-than-average conditions across much of the central United States, northern Mexico, northeastern Brazil, central Russia, and south-central Australia. Wetter-than-average conditions were present across northern Europe, western Africa, north-central Argentina, western Alaska, and most of northern China.

Snow cover extent in North America during the 2011/2012 winter was below average, resulting in the fourth smallest winter snow cover extent on record, according to data from the Global Snow Laboratory. This was in marked contrast to the previous two winters (2009/2010 and 2010/2011), which had the largest and third largest snow cover extent, respectively, since records began in 1966.

Meanwhile, the Eurasian continent snow cover extent during the winter was above average, resulting in the fourth largest snow cover extent on record. Overall, the northern hemisphere snow cover extent was above average – 590000 km2 above the average of 45.2 million km2 – and was the fourteenth largest snow cover extent on record.

Greenland ice sheet: In early July, Greenland’s surface ice cover melted dramatically, with an estimated 97 per cent of the ice sheet surface having thawed in mid-July. This was the largest melt extent since satellite records began 34 years ago. During the summer it is typical to observe nearly half of the surface of Greenland’s ice sheet melt naturally, particularly across the lower elevations. However, in 2012 a high-pressure system brought warmer-than-average conditions to Greenland, which are associated with the rapid melting.

Arctic sea ice extent reached its record lowest level in its annual cycle on 16 September at 3.41 million km2. This value broke the previous record low set on 18 September 2007 by 18 per cent. It was 49 per cent or nearly 3.3 million km2 below the 1979–2000 average minimum. The difference between the maximum Arctic sea-ice extent on 20 March and the lowest minimum extent on 16 September was 11.83 million km2 – the largest seasonal sea-ice extent loss in the 34-year satellite record.

Antarctic sea-ice extent in March was the fourth largest on record at 5.0 million km2 or 16.0 per cent above the 1979–2000 average. During its growth season, the Antarctic sea-ice extent reached its maximum extent since records began in 1979 on 26 September, at 19.4 million km2. This value surpassed the previous maximum sea-ice extent record of 19.36 million km2 set on 21 September 2006.

Extreme Events: Hurricane Sandy killed close to 100 people and caused major destruction in the Caribbean and tens of billions of US dollars in damage and around 130 deaths in the eastern United States of America. Typhoon Bopha, the deadliest tropical cyclone of the year, hit the Philippines – twice – in December. During the year, the United States and south-eastern Europe experienced extreme drought conditions, while West Africa was severely hit by extreme flooding. The populations of Europe, northern Africa and Asia were acutely affected by extreme cold and snow conditions. Severe flooding occurred in Pakistan or a third consecutive year.

Climate change is aggravating naturally occurring climate variability and has become asource of uncertainty for climate-sensitive economic sectors like agriculture and energy.

“It is vital that we continue to invest in the observations and research that will improve our knowledge about climate variability and climate change,” said Mr Jarraud.

“We need to understand how much of the extra heat captured by greenhouse gases is being stored in the oceans and the consequences this brings in terms of ocean acidification and other impacts. We need to know more about the temporary cooling effects of pollution and other aerosols emitted into the atmosphere. We also need a better understanding of the changing behaviour of extreme weather and climate events as a consequence of global warming, as well as the need to assist countries in the most affected areas to better manage climate-related risks with improved climate early warning and climate watch systems,” said Mr Jarraud.

---

The Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), adopted by the Extraordinary World Meteorological Congress in 2012, provides the necessary global platform to inform decision-making for climate adaptation through enhanced climate information.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/2012-Among-Top-Ten-Warmest-Years_WMO.html

Hansen's New Climate Dice - Hot, Loaded, and Misunderstood

by Dana Nuccitelli, Skeptical Science, August 15, 2012

James Hansen's newest paper, Perception of climate change, has been published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).  In January 2012, Michael Sweet examined the draft version of this paper prior to its review and acceptance by PNAS.  The paper links increased heat wave frequency and intensity to human-caused climate change.  As a result, it has generated a great deal of mainstream media attention, and also a number of misinterpretations and misrepresentations which we will examine in this post.

Hansen's Findings

Hansen et al. examined the surface temperature record to determine how the distribution of temperatures has changed over the past six decades.  As we know, the average global temperature has increased approximately 0.7 °C over that period, so not surprisingly, the distribution of temperature anomalies has also shifted towards warmer values on average, as illustrated by the animation below and Figure 1.

Source: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center GISS and Scientific Visualization Studio 

This changing temperature distribution is a wholly empirical result, and has also been observed by Donat and Alexander (2012):

"The results indicate that the distributions of both daily maximum and minimum temperatures have significantly shifted towards higher values in the latter period compared to the earlier period in almost all regions"

and

"...these changes have had the greatest impact on the extremes of the distribution and we conclude that the distribution of global daily temperatures has indeed become “more extreme” since the middle of the 20th century."

This was also shown by Meehl (2009), which examined how the ratio of hot to cold records in the United States has changed over the past six decades (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Ratio of record daily highs to record daily lows observed at about 1,800 weather stations in the 48 contiguous United States from January 1950 through September 2009. Each bar shows the proportion of record highs (red) to record lows (blue) for each decade. The 1960s and 1970s saw slightly more record daily lows than highs, but in the last 30 years record highs have increasingly predominated, with the ratio now about two-to-one for the 48 states as a whole.

This main conclusion that we are seeing more and stronger heat waves as a consequence of global warming is a clear, expected, empirical result which we would hope nobody will dispute. The controversy comes in when these results are used to try and attribute individual heat waves to human-caused global warming.

Extreme Heat Waves - Anthropogenic and Natural

Martin Hoerling of NOAA criticized Hansen et al. for attributing several heat waves to global warming in the abstract of their paper:

"we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small."

and in Hansen's related New York Times (NYT) op-ed:

"The change is so drastic, the paper says, that scientists can claim with near certainty that events like the Texas heat wave last year, the Russian heat wave of 2010 and the European heat wave of 2003 would not have happened without the planetary warming caused by the human release of greenhouse gases."

Hoerling responded in a separate NYT interview by stating that he had previously co-authored a paper which concluded that the Russian heat wave was largely a consequence of natural climate variability.  However, the paper in question is Dole et al. (2011), which contained some serious flaws, failing to account for a glitch in the Moscow July station temperature data, which saw an urban heat island correction erroneously applied, as discussed in detail by Stefan Rahmstorf at RealClimate.

Meanwhile the results of Hansen et al. are consistent with those of Rahmstorf and Coumou (2011), who concluded that the Moscow heat wave would likely not have broken the record without an assist from human-caused global warming.

"For July temperature in Moscow, we estimate that the local warming trendhas increased the number of records expected in the past decade fivefold, which implies an approximate 80% probability that the 2010 July heat record would not have occurred without climate warming."

Otto et al. (2012) found that the Moscow heat wave was so intense that the human-caused warming alone could not account for it -- in other words that it can be called "mostly natural."  However, they also found that the warming trend had caused a three-fold increase in the likelihood that the heat record would be broken (Figure 2); in that sense "supporting the assertion that the risk of the event occurring was mainly attributable to the external trend."

Figure 2. Return periods of temperature-geopotential height conditions in the model for the 1960s (green) and the 2000s (blue) and in ERA-Interim for 1979-2010 (black). The vertical black arrow shows the anomaly of the Russian heat wave 2010 (black horizontal line) compared to the July mean temperatures of the 1960s (dashed line). The vertical red arrow gives the increase in the magnitude of the heat wave due to the shift of the distribution whereas the horizontal red arrow shows the change in the return period.  Figure 4 in Otto et al. (2012).

And Hansen's comments about the 2003 European heat wave are consistent with the results of Stott et al. (2004):

"we estimate it is very likely (confidence level >90%) that human influence has at least doubled the risk of a heatwave exceeding this threshold magnitude."

Drought Confusion

In his NYT interview, Hoerling claimed that Hansen's paper confused droughts with heat waves.  Patrick Michaels has also described Hansen's paper in similar terms:

"Hansen claims that global warming is associated with increased drought in the US....His hypothesis is a complete and abject failure."

It is a red flag when Patrick Michaels -- who has become famous for deleting inconvenient data and distorting other scientists' results -- agrees with your criticisms of another scientist's work.  It's an olympic-sized red flag when Anthony Watts also agrees.

Predictably, these claims are simply wrong, and entirely mischaracterize Hansen's paper, which focuses almost exclusively on temperature changes and barely even mentions droughts.  Watts' confusion came from this Associated Press article which does equate heat waves with drought several times.  However, nowhere in the article is Hansen quoted even mentioning drought.  Hoerling and Michaels may have confused Hansen's paper with his NYT op-ed, in which he said:

"Over the next several decades, the Western United States and the semi-arid region from North Dakota to Texas will develop semi-permanent drought, with rain, when it does come, occurring in extreme events with heavy flooding."

However, this comment came two paragraphs before Hansen began discussing his new paper, and note that the comment discusses future, not present droughts. Hansen's comments on this matter are supported by the scientific literature, for example Dai (2010), which projects changes in the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), shown in Figures 3 and 4, concluding:

"Regions like the United States have avoided prolonged droughts during the last 50 years due to natural climate variations, but might see persistent droughts in the next 20–50 years"

Figure 3. PDSI 2030-2039. (Courtesy UCAR)

Figure 4. PDSI 2060-2069. (Courtesy UCAR)

Wehner et al. (2011) (related presentation here) arrived at similar conclusions, as did a new paper by Dai (2012).  Joe Romm has a good roundup of relevant research.

Hoerling also quoted the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) to support his point.  However, he quoted a section on floods instead of droughts. Here is what the SREX says about US droughts in the next few decades:

"There is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in the 21st century in some seasons and areas, due to reduced precipitation and/or increased evapotranspiration. This applies to regions including...central North America."

Again, this is consistent with Hansen's comments.

Tamino on Variability

Tamino has pointed out that the change in the distribution of surface temperatures may not be due to increased variability, as Hansen et al. conclude, but rather simply due to a combination of different regions warming at different rates, and when their data are combined, the result looks the same as it would if temperature variability were increasing.  In other words, we don't know how much of the increase in hot weather events is due to weather becoming more variable, and how much is simply due to average temperatures becoming hotter.

The results of Donat and Alexander (2012) lend some credibility to Tamino's comments regarding a lesser change in temperature variance, although they find that an increase in skewness (asymmetry) of the temperature distribution has probably contributed to the increased frequency of extreme heat events (Figure 5).

"The results indicate that the distributions of both daily maximum and minimum temperatures have significantly shifted towards higher values in the latter period compared to the earlier period in almost all regions, whereas changes in variance are spatially heterogeneous and mostly less significant.  However asymmetry appears to have decreased but is altered in such a way that it has become skewed towards the hotter part of the distribution."

Figure 5. The differences in higher moment statistics of (a) mean, (b) variance, and (c) skewness for each grid box in HadGHCND for (left) daily minimum temperature anomalies and (right) daily maximum temperature anomalies for the two time periods shown. Hatching indicates changes between the two periods that are significant at the 10% level for the mean (using a Student’s t-test) and the variance (using an f-test) of the distribution. Figure 1 in Donat and Alexander (2012).

This is an issue we will be exploring in another post in the near future.  However, it does not impact the main result of Hansen et al., that global warming has caused extreme heat events to occur more frequently and to be more intense on average.  The question is more of a technical issue -- whether the increase in extreme heat events is due more to an increased temperature variability, to the warmer shift in average temperatures, or to increased skewness in the temperature distribution.  In any case, human-caused global warming is responsible. 

More Mischaracterizations of Hansen et al.

In addition to the misrepresentation of Hansen's results from Michaels and Hoerling, Roger Pielke, Sr., has endorsed an extremely poor critique of Hansen et al. by Mike Smith, which does not even address Hansen's new paper, but rather his 1988 paper, and does so by distorting reality as many others (including the aforementioned Patrick Michaels) have.  Hansen's paper created global warming projections based on three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (A, B, and C).  Smith claims:

"Turns out that Scenario A turned out to be correct"

This is a false statement which we have debunked many times, most recently here, where we showed that Scenario A has actually turned out to be the furthest from reality (Figure 6).

Figure 6. Radiative forcing contributions from 1988 to 2010 from CO2 (dark blue), N2O (red), CH4 (green), CFC-11 (purple), and CFC-12 (light blue) in each of the scenarios modeled in Hansen et al. 1988, vs. observations (NOAA).

Smith in turn (along with Watts, who also posted Michaels' strawman attack on Hansen et al.) endorsed another poor analysis of Hansen's work by Cliff Mass. Mass grossly oversimplified the situation, for example trying to parse out what percentage of the heat waves could be attributed to global warming vs. natural variability by examining the mean annual temperature increase without recognizing that this increase varies over different seasons, different local regions, and possibly even different types of weather events. A few people left good comments on Mass' post here and here, for further reading.

Mass generally misunderstood the arguments of Hansen et al. as well. In the end, Mass basically echoed part of the conclusion from Otto et al. (2012), that the heat waves could be described as "mostly natural." However, the main point of Hansen et al. is that heat waves like those in Moscow, Texas and Oklahoma will occur more frequently and on average be more intense than they would be without human-caused global warming.  As Tamino notes,

"Cliff Mass gives the impression that there’s nothing to worry about because our “3-sigma” events — the real killers — will only be one degree hotter, quite ignoring the fact that we’ll get 10 times as many of them."

Probability - the Language of Science

As the papers discussed here note, these issues boil down to probabilities. Global warming has obviously made temperatures warmer, on average, which in turn has increased the odds of extreme heat events.  Hansen's argument is that without global warming, the probability of the Moscow, Texas and Oklahoma heat waves being so hot is so small, that it's safe to say that global warming was a contributing factor -- that they would not have been as blisteringly hot in the absence of global warming. 

That's not to say that humans caused these heat waves -- we didn't. However, odds are very good that they wouldn't have been as hot or record-breaking without human influences, and human influences will also cause more frequent, hotter, record breaking heat waves in the future as global warming continues.

This is where the 'loading the dice' analogy comes in.  Hansen's point is that by increasing the average temperature, we are making the hotter temperatures more likely -- effectively weighting the hotter values of the climate dice.  As a result, today's extreme heat will become the norm a few decades from now, just as what we considered extreme heat a few decades ago has now become much more commonplace.  As Tamino put it in a recent post:

"When a 3-sigma event happens, it’s a problem but we can deal with it and recover from it. When 10 (or more) times as many 3-sigma events happen … we have a problem.

That means we’re already in trouble. The really bad news is that we’re already in trouble from just the warming we’ve already experienced, but it’s going to get worse because it’s going to get hotter. You think the 2011 Texas-Oklahoma heat wave was bad? You think this year’s corn-belt heat wave was bad? You think the 2010 Russian heat wave was very very bad? You ain’t seen nothin’ yet."

Hot and Heavy Dice

To summarize, Hansen et al. showed that extreme heat events have become more common and more intense as a result of global warming.  While Hansen correctly noted in a NYT op-ed that droughts are expected to become more frequent in parts of the USA in the coming decades, aside from a brief discussion of the link between extreme heat and drought, Hansen et al. (2012) does not address droughts or attribute them to global warming.

Hansen et al. have shown that a number of heat waves such as the 2010 Russian event are very unlikely to have been as intense or record-breaking if humans weren't causing global warming. Simply put, several recent heat waves have been so hot that the chances of a similarly intense heat wave happening several decades ago would have been very, very low.  We are loading the dice to make the chances of extreme heat waves happening much higher, which is why they are happening more frequently.

As Hansen et al. note, "public opinion about the existence and importance of globalwarming depends strongly on their perceptions of recent local climate variations."  This is undoubtedly why their paper has been the target of so many mischaracterizations by people who want public opinion to stay right where it is.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/hansens-new-climate-dice-loaded-misunderstood.html

Kansas and South Dakota winter wheat severely damaged by drought

National Farmers Organization

800-247-2110 or e-mail: nfo@nfo.org

News Release

Contact: Perry Garner, Communications Director

528 Billy Sunday Road, Ames, IA 50010

For Immediate Release

Persistent Drought Worries Producers

KANSAS CITY, Mo., January 30, 2013 — At National Farmers Connect to Profit Convention in Kansas City, Tuesday, Senior Grain Marketing Analyst Pete Lorenz spoke about severe drought conditions gripping the nation’s farm lands.

"We see real risk for production problems this coming year in wheat, and in some corn areas, because of the drought," Lorenz said. “In Kansas, where I live, the state’s wheat crop is in the poorest condition it has been in 50 years. And I’ve heard South Dakota hasn’t seen crop conditions this poor in history,” Lorenz emphasized.

Weather condition and potential crop losses could lead to extreme market volatility. And it makes marketing plans that much more of a necessity. A combination of all risk management tools, options, forward contracts and other marketing strategies will be needed this year. The crop insurance sign up deadline is March 15 for spring-planted crops.

With inadequate subsoil moisture in western Kansas, Lorenz has heard reports of people digging six feet down, without finding moisture — encountering nothing but dust. This puts spring-planted crops at severe risk. “It will take several rain events to replenish topsoil and subsoil levels," according to Lorenz.

Last year, wheat began growing in February because warm weather came early. “Once the wheat comes out of dormancy this year, if we don’t receive rain in two to four weeks, there could be a serious problem,” he said.

Additionally, National Farmers Crop Insurance Agent Chris Webb pointed out crop insurance is a win-win for consumers and producers. Even with the 2012 drought, government made no major disaster outlays last year, despite the historic drought.

Lorenz is presenting to grain growers in Kansas City this week during National Farmers Connect to Profit Convention, at AG CONNECT Expo and Summit.

Jeff Masters, Michael Mann, Katharine Hayhoe and Paul Douglas talk about 2012 and 2013

This month’s video for the Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media.

by Peter Sinclair of Climate Denial Crock of the Week, January 24 2013

I stopped by Jeff Masters’s southeast Michigan home in early January, on a day that happened to be a record breaker for high temperatures -- just before a misbehaving jet stream snapped the upper Midwest into a deep freeze.  The small spring-fed lake nearby made a great back drop for talking about what’s been happening in the historic watershed year of 2012, and what we can expect in 2013.

For more context, I added in pieces of conversations I’ve had recently with Katharine Hayhoe and Mike Mann – as well as my  favorite Republican Meteorologist, Paul Douglas.

http://climatecrocks.com/2013/01/24/masters-mann-hayhoe-douglas-2012-review-2013-outlook/

James Hansen: 2012 9th warmest year in global record

Global Temperature Update Through 2012

by J. Hansen, M. Sato and R. Ruedy, January 15, 2013

Summary. Global surface temperature in 2012 was +0.56 °C (1 °F) warmer than the 1951-1980 base period average, despite much of the year being affected by a strong La Nina. Global temperature thus continues at a high level that is sufficient to cause a substantial increase in the frequency of extreme warm anomalies. The 5-year mean global temperature has been flat for a decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slowdown in the growth rate of the net climate forcing.

An update through 2012 of our global analysis [1] (Fig. 1) reveals 2012 as having practically the same temperature as 2011, significantly lower than the maximum reached in 2010. These short-term global fluctuations are associated principally with natural oscillations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures summarized in the Nino index in the lower part of the figure. 2012 is nominally the 9th warmest year, but it is indistinguishable in rank with several other years, as shown by the error estimate for comparing nearby years. Note that the 10 warmest years in the record have all occurred since 1998.

The long-term warming trend, including continual warming since the mid-1970s, has been conclusively associated with the predominant global climate forcing, human-made greenhouse gases [2], which began to grow substantially early in the 20th century. The approximate stand-still of global temperature during 1940-1975 is generally attributed to an approximate balance of aerosol cooling and greenhouse gas warming during a period of rapid growth of fossil fuel use with little control on particulate air pollution, but satisfactory quantitative interpretation has been impossible because of the absence of adequate aerosol measurements [3,4].

Below we discuss the contributions to temperature change in the past decade from stochastic (unforced) climate variability and from climate forcings.

[I cannot post the figures, so please go to this link to read further:
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2013/20130115_Temperature2012.pdf]

NOAA: 2012 global temperatures 10th highest on record

According to NOAA scientists, the globally-averaged temperature for 2012 marked the 10th warmest year since record keeping began in 1880. It also marked the 36th consecutive year with a global temperature above the 20th century average. The last below-average annual temperature was 1976. Including 2012, all 12 years to date in the 21st century (2001-2012) rank among the 14 warmest in the 133-year period of record. Only one year during the 20th century--1998--was warmer than 2012. NOAA: 2012 was the 10th warmest year on record. High resolution. (Credit: NOAA Visualization Lab).             Most areas of the world experienced higher-than-average annual temperatures, including most of North and South America, most of Europe and Africa, and western, southern, and far northeastern Asia. Meanwhile, most of Alaska, far western Canada, central Asia, parts of the eastern and equatorial Pacific, southern Atlantic, and parts of the Southern Ocean were notably cooler than average. Additionally, the Arctic experienced a record-breaking ice melt season while the Antarctic ice extent was above average.             This analysis (summary, full report) from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides government, business and community leaders so they can make informed decisions. 2012 global temperature highlights 2012 was the 10th warmest year since records began in 1880. The globally-averaged annual combined land and ocean surface temperature was 1.03 °F (0.57 °C) above the 20th century average of 57.0 °F (13.9 °C). The margin of error is +/- 0.14 °F (0.08 °C). Record to near-record warm land surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere from April to September and overall warmer-than-average ocean surface temperatures made the first 11 months of the year the eighth warmest on record. However, extreme cold across much of the Northern Hemisphere land during December helped lower the year-to-date temperature departure from average by 0.04 °F (0.02 °C) compared with the previous month. The global annual temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.11 °F (0.06 °C) per decade from 1880 to 2012 and at an average rate of 0.27 °F (0.15 °C) per decade over the past 50 years (1963-2012). The 2012 worldwide land surface temperature was 1.62 °F (0.90 °C) above the 20th century average, making it the seventh warmest such period on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.32 °F (0.18 °C). The contiguous United States had its warmest year since national records began in 1895, surpassing the previous record set in 1936 by 1.0 °F (0.6 °C). Austria experienced its seventh warmest year since national records began in 1767, at 1.8 °F (1.0 °C) above the long-term average. With the first half of 2012 cooler than average and the second half warmer than average, on balance the annual 2012 temperature across Australia was 0.11 °F (0.06 °C) above the 1961-1990 average. Only the year 2011 has been below average in the past decade. The 2012 temperature across the United Kingdom was 0.2 °F (0.1 °C) below the 1981-2010 average. This is in part attributed to the UK's coolest summer since 1998 and coolest autumn since 1993. Norway had its 45th warmest year since record began in 1900, at 0.7 °F (0.4°C) above average. Weak-to-moderate cold phase La Niña conditions were present in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean for the first three months of 2012, classifying 2012 as a "La Niña year." ENSO-neutral conditions prevailed for the remainder of the year. The 2012 global combined land and surface temperature was the warmest annual temperature observed during a La Niña year; 2011 was previously the warmest La Niña year on record. The 2012 global average ocean temperature was 0.81 °F (0.45 °C) above the 20th century average of 60.9 °F (16.1 °C), tying with 2001 as the 10th warmest year on record. It was also the warmest year on record among all La Niña years. 2012 precipitation highlights Following the two wettest years on record (2010 and 2011), 2012 saw near average precipitation on balance across the globe. However, precipitation varied greatly in some regions. Major drought gripped important agricultural regions across the world during summer 2012. These regions included eastern Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and central North America. By the end of 2012, northeastern Brazil was experiencing its worst drought in decades. The rainy season was wetter than normal across western and central Africa. Flooding affected more than three million people across 15 countries from July to October. The United Kingdom had its second wettest year since records began in 1910, falling 7.3 mm shy of the record wetness of 2000. Particularly notable, record dryness during March turned to record wetness in April. Finland was wetter than average for 2012, with many stations observing their wettest year in the past half century. The capital city of Helsinki reported its second wettest year, behind 1944, since records began in the early 19th century. 2012 snow and polar ice highlights For all of 2012, Arctic sea ice extent was below average. On March 18, Arctic sea ice reached its annual maximum extent at 5.88 million square mi (15.24 million square km) -- 0.24 million square mi (0.61 million square km) below average -- which began the annual melt season. The annual Arctic sea ice melting ended on September 16, when the Arctic sea ice extent dropped to 1.32 million square mi (3.41 million square km), the lowest ever recorded. The annual minimum extent was 49% below average and 0.29 million square mi (0.76 million square km) below the previous smallest extent which occurred in September 2007. Between March 18 and September 16, 4.57 million square mi (11.83 million square km) of ice melted -- the largest ice loss of any melt season on record. Arctic sea ice during September has been lost at an average rate of 13.0 percent per decade. Antarctic sea ice extent was above average for most of 2012. Sea ice in the Southern Hemisphere peaked on September 26, reaching its annual maximum extent, at 7.51 million square mi (19.44 million square km). This was the largest Antarctic sea ice extent on record, surpassing the previous record of 7.47 million square mi (19.36 million square km) which occurred in September 2006. Antarctic sea ice during September has increased at an average rate of 0.9% per decade. Winter (December 2011-February 2012) snow cover extent for the Northern Hemisphere was 228,000 square miles (590,000 square km) above average, making it the 14th largest seasonal snow cover extent on record. North American snow cover was below average during the season, or fourth smallest winter extent on record, while Eurasian snow cover ranked as its fourth largest on record. Spring snow cover extent for the Northern Hemisphere was much below average and ranked as the sixth smallest on record. Both North America and Eurasia had below-average spring snow cover.     The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in December 2012 was the largest on record at 1.2 million square mi (3.0 million square km) above average and 0.08 million square mi (0.2 million square km) above the previous record from 1985. Both North America (13th largest) and Eurasia (second largest) had above-average December snow cover. Winter Northern Hemisphere snow cover has expanded at an approximate rate of 0.1 percent per decade, while spring Northern Hemisphere snow cover has shrunk at an approximate rate of 2.2% per decade. Global temperature highlights: December The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for December was the 18th highest on record for December at 54.74 °F (12.61 °C), or 0.74 °F (0.41 °C), above the 20th century average. The margin of error associated with this temperature is +/- 0.09 °F (0.16 °C). The global land temperature was 0.38 °F (0.21 °C) above the 20th century average of 38.7 °F (3.7 °C), the 49th warmest December on record and coolest December since 1986.   There was stark contrast between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere land areas during December. Colder-than-average temperatures engulfed most of Eurasia and Alaska, making this the 64th coolest (70th warmest) such December for the Northern Hemisphere on record and the coolest since 1984. Meanwhile, the Southern Hemisphere observed record warm temperatures over land during the month. The land mass in the Southern Hemisphere is much smaller than that of the Northern Hemisphere. For the ocean, the December global sea surface temperature was 0.85 °F (0.47 °C),  above the 20th century average of 60.4 °F (15.7 °C), the sixth warmest for December on record. NOAA and NASA are two keepers of the world's temperature record. To view NASA's 2012 global temperature summary, visit http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-temps.html. Although analyses by each agency are independently derived, together with other records maintained by other countries, validate the long-term global record. These analyses provide government, business and community leaders with critical data and information to make informed decisions. Media contacts: John Ewald, john.ewald@noaa.gov, 240-429-6127 Katy Vincent, katy.vincent@noaa.gov, 828-257-3136

Additional information can be found on the following web sites: NOAA 2012 Global Climate Report: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/13 NOAA December 2012 Global Climate Report:http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/12 NOAA Climate Portal: http://www.climate.gov/