Evidence stretching back 40,000 years shows that global warming will increase drying in a region of East Africa where drought already causes humanitarian crises

by Alex Kirby, Climate News Network, October 10, 2015

LONDON – One of Africa’s most volatile regions has become increasingly dry over the last century and faces a future of rising tension if this trend continues, US researchers say.

They say the rate of drying in the Horn of Africa is both unusual in the context of the last 2,000 years and in step with human-influenced warming. And they think the drying will continue as the region warms.

“Right now, aid groups are expecting a wetter, greener future for the Horn of Africa, but our findings show that the exact opposite is occurring,” says one of the study’s co-authors, Peter deMenocal, who heads the Center for Climate and Life at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.

“The region is drying, and will continue to do so with rising carbon emissions.” The study, published in the journal Science Advances, was based on evidence stretching back for 40,000 years.

Sediment core

The researchers used a sediment core they had extracted from the Gulf of Aden to infer past changes in temperature and aridity. After matching the core’s record with 20th-century observations, they concluded that drying is likely to continue across Somalia, Djibouti and Ethiopia.

That contradicts other models, which have suggested that future warming might bring rainier weather patterns that could benefit East Africa.

“What we see in the paleoclimate record from the last 2,000 years is evidence that the Horn of Africa is drier when there are warm conditions on Earth, and wetter when it is colder,” says lead author Jessica Tierney, associate professor of geosciences at the University of Arizona.

Global-scale models used to predict future changes as the climate warms suggest that the region should become wetter, primarily during the “short rains” season from September to November.

However, the new study suggests that those gains may be offset by declining rainfall during the “long rains” season from March to May, on which the region’s rain-fed agriculture relies.

The authors say the region has been racked with political instability and violence as it has dried. The Horn of Africa has suffered droughts every few years in recent decades − creating humanitarian crises as famine and violence spread.

In Somalia, as the political situation deteriorated amid the droughts of the 1980s and 1990s, hundreds of thousands of refugees fled the country, and pirates began raiding ships off the coast.

The 40,000-year-old sediment core has already yielded insights into Africa’s climate. In 2013, Tierney and deMenocal showed that the Sahara, which once used to burst into verdant life with regular rainfall, suddenly dried out over a century or two, during a warm period about 5,000 years ago – not more gradually, as many researchers had thought.

Their work provided evidence that climate shifts can happen quite suddenly, even if the forces driving them are gradual.

This latest study uses isotopes from leaf waxes found in the sediment sample to compare rates of drying over the past 2,000 years.

Plants reflect the environment that sustains them. When the climate is drier, leaf waxes are more enriched with deuterium, or heavy hydrogen isotopes, while leaf waxes from wetter climates reflect the more abundant rainfall through the presence of the normal hydrogen isotopes.

The researchers found an increasing shift toward heavy hydrogen in the last century as the climate − which had experienced a wet period during the Little Ice Age (1450-1850 AD) − dried out.

Climate modelling

Their findings suggest that climate modelling, frequently done at a global scale, would benefit from region-specific studies with higher-resolution results in high-impact areas such as the Horn of Africa

Tierney says: “If we can simulate rainfall in these arid tropical and subtropical regions better, we can understand the future impact of climate change.”

The development agency Oxfam says Ethiopia is facing a major emergency, with 4.5 million people needing food aid because of successive poor rains this year.

Oxfam’s representative in Ethiopia describes the situation − attributed to the El Niño periodic climate phenomenon in the Pacific − as “the start of a major emergency, which is expected to be serious and long.”

Meanwhile, parts of West Africa are suffering from the aftermath of severe floods − also attributed to El Niño − that have ruined crops and destroyed homes in Burkina Faso and Niger. 

John Abraham: Global warming makes drought come on earlier, faster, and harder

A new study tries to separate natural and human influences on drought

by John Abraham, "Climate Consensus - The 97%," The Guardian, June 30, 2014

Yemenis walk through a drought-affected dam on the outskirts of Sana'a, Yemen. Sana a city is running out of water and many relief agencies feel that it could become the first capital city in the world to run out of a viable water supply. Photograph: Yahya Arhab/EPA

We all know that some climate change is natural, in fact, even without humans, the Earth’s climate changes. But, as we have added heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere, we have seen human influence “emerge” from natural variability.

Droughts, one of the most intensely studied climate events, are a perfect example of an effect with both human and natural influences. Separating the relative strengths of the influences is a challenge for scientists. But, when we deal with drought, with its large social and economic costs, it is a challenge we must undertake.

A very recent study tries to do just this. Published in the Journal of Climate, authors Richard Seager and Martin Hoerling cleverly used climate models forced by sea surface temperatures to separate how much of the past century’s North American droughts have been caused by ocean temperatures, natural variability, and humans. What they found was expected (all three of these influence drought), but it's the details that are exciting. Furthermore, the methodology can be applied to other climate phenomena at other locations around the globe.

The very beginning of their paper sets a great framework for the study,

“In a nation that has been reeling from one weather or climate disaster to another, with record tornado outbreaks, landfalling tropical storms and superstorms, record winter snowfalls, and severe droughts, persistent droughts appear almost prosaic. Droughts do not cause the mass loss of life and property destruction by floods and storms. They are instead slow-moving disasters whose beginnings and ends are even often hard to identify. However, while the social and financial costs of hurricane, tornado, and flood disasters are, of course, tremendous, droughts are one of the costliest of natural disasters in the United States.”

Droughts can be caused by a variety of isolated or interacting phenomena. At its root, drought results from lowered precipitation and sometimes higher temperatures (which increase evaporation rates). The onset of drought can often be linked to variations in ocean temperatures. For instance, La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean as well as elevated Atlantic Ocean temperatures have coincided with United States droughts.

In fact the authors state that the three mid-to-late 19th century droughts, the Dust Bowl, and the drought in the 1950s all depended on persistent La Niña conditions. Of course, other factors played roles as well and ocean temperatures simply don’t explain everything. Perhaps the best example of multiple drought factors is the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Then, cool Pacific temperatures were not by themselves sufficient. It is likely that land use changes associated with farmland erosion and natural atmospheric variability also played roles.

The authors, therefore, wanted to move beyond a simplistic association of La Niña episodes and warm Atlantic Ocean waters with the occurrence of drought. They asked what other causes might there be and how will things change in the coming years and decades?

Using precipitation data from the University of East Anglia and ocean temperatures from the Hadley Centre combined with climate models, the researchers were able to add or omit the oceanic temperatures and compare the two sets of results. They found that ocean temperature variations cause up to 40% of the changes to precipitation, depending on location. They also found that the oceans can “nudge” the atmosphere to create conditions that are amenable to drought, and that temperature increases associated with human-driven global warming also play a role. In fact,

“The warming leads to a simulated long-term reduction in soil moisture which, although of weak magnitude compared to soil moisture deficits induced by naturally occurring droughts in the southwest United States, would imply that drought conditions may be entered more quickly and alleviated more slowly owing to long-term warming … Radiative forcing of the climate system is another source of predictability, although not really a welcome one, and rising greenhouse gases will lead to a steady drying of southwest North America. However this is a change that is only now beginning to emerge and currently is exerting less influence on precipitation variability than ocean variability or internal variability.”

This conclusion agrees with other researchers who have shown that, while human-emitted greenhouse gas warming may not cause a particular drought, it can make drought come on earlier, faster, and harder than it otherwise would.

There are two issues that I will be watching closely. The first is that any extra damage caused by drought as a consequence of human emissions will not scale linearly with attribution. For instance, if human impacts are responsible for 10% of a drought’s severity, it does not mean that human impacts are responsible for 10% of the social or economic cost. 

A great example of this is Superstorm Sandy. While admittedly not a drought, the example will make the point. It has been estimated that human-caused increases to water temperatures caused perhaps 10% more rain to fall. This extra 10% rainfall caused more than 10% of the economic damages associated with rainfall. Similarly, the human-induced sea level rise of 1 foot was only about 10% of the storm surge. But, this extra foot caused a disproportionate amount of flood damage. With this in mind, I would really like to know how the social and financial costs will change in the future as droughts set in earlier, faster, and harder because of greenhouse gas warming.

Secondly, there may well be a human influence on these otherwise natural causes. For instance, scientists have argued that greenhouse gas warming may change the ocean temperature fluctuations, particularly in the Pacific. Similarly, there are many new studies linking increasing greenhouse gases with atmospheric circulation changes. Since both of these features affect drought, they appear, at least to me, to be potential indirect human influences.

We will have to wait to learn more, let’s hope the wait isn’t too long.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/jun/30/global-warming-makes-drought-earlier-faster-harder

WWF staff receive death threats for opposing Virunga oil exploitation

Phone calls follow attempted assassination of national park's chief warden and increased reports of intimidation

by John Vidal, The Guardian, May 13, 2014

Virunga national park rangers and a mountain gorilla. Park director, Emmanuel De Merode (third from right), was shot in an ambush while driving alone in a park vehicle in April. Photograph: Brent Stirton/Getty Images

WWF staff have been telephoned with death threats for opposing oil exploitation in Africa's oldest national park, which is home to one in four of the world's estimated 800 remaining mountain gorillas. It follows the attempted assassination of the Virunga national park's chief warden last month and the death of two Congolese park wardens in the last few months.

"We are taking the calls seriously," said a spokeswoman at the conservation group's Swiss HQ. "Two anonymous callers made specific threats. They were angry about a staff member's public statements about the negative impacts of oil. One caller said: 'We want his head'."

Reports of intimidation are said to have increased in the weeks since the Virunga chief warden, the Belgian aristocrat Emmanuel de Merode, was shot in an ambush by three people while driving alone in a park vehicle in April. "The callers … said that they had missed killing de Merode, but would not miss WWF's employees," said the WWF spokeswoman.

The fishing village of Kavanyongi on the northern shores of Lake Edward. WWF has said that oil exploitation could put at risk the livelihoods of 50,000 families that depend on the lake for jobs, food and drinking water. Photograph: Brent Stirton/Getty Images

Tensions are rising in Virunga as UK-based oil company Soco International PLC starts six weeks of seismic tests in Lake Edward. If successful, this can be expected to lead to exploratory drilling, possibly starting next year.

Soco, which received permission from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) government to explore for oil in the park in 2010, has been strongly opposed by environmental and civil society organisations as well as the UK government. The company has stated it will not seek to operate in the mountain gorilla habitat, the Virunga volcanoes or equatorial rainforest.

However, WWF has said that oil exploitation could put at risk the livelihoods of 50,000 families that depend on the lake for jobs, food and drinking water. Its country director in Congo DRC, Raymond Lumbuenamo, has said that security in and around the park is likely to deteriorate further if Soco goes ahead with its exploration plans.

"The security situation in the park is already bad. The UN is involved with fighting units and the M23 rebel force is inside the park. Oil would be a curse. It always increases conflict. It would attract human sabotage. The park might become like the Niger delta. Developing Virunga for oil will not make anything better. When you take part of the land [for oil] you put more pressure on the rest," he told The Guardian last year.

The park, which stretches over two million acres of forests, swamps, savannahs, snowfields and includes several active volcanoes, is the oldest in Africa, founded in 1925 by Belgium's King Albert I. It has been a battleground for decades and has been occupied by a succession of Congolese and Rwandan militia groups, including the M23 rebel force, the Hutu paramilitary Interahamwe group, and the armies of several countries. An estimated 140 conservation wardens have been killed and many more have fled or left since 1996.

De Merode, who is recovering in Nairobi, said in a statement: "Unfortunately the attack is not an uncommon incident for Virunga national park. Our rangers are targeted frequently due to their difficult work in protecting the park and its many valuable resources. They continue to face such risks to restore peace and the rule of law to the area and the people in their care."

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/may/13/wwf-death-threats-oil-virunga-congo

NASA Finds Drought May Take Toll on Congo Rainforest

A View of the entire African rainforest area (green) transitions into a view of the region included in the Nature study, primarily in the Congo forest (mostly brown). The study area represents intact areas in the Congo rainforest where satellite data are high quality. Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio
› Larger image

from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, April 23, 2014

A new analysis of NASA satellite data shows Africa's Congo rainforest, the second-largest tropical rainforest in the world, has undergone a large-scale decline in greenness over the past decade.

The study, led by Liming Zhou of University at Albany, State University of New York, shows between 2000 and 2012 the decline affected an increasing amount of forest area and intensified. The research, published Wednesday in Nature, is one of the most comprehensive observational studies to explore the effects of long-term drought on the Congo rainforest using several independent satellite sensors.

"It's important to understand these changes because most climate models predict tropical forests may be under stress due to increasing severe water shortages in a warmer and drier 21st century climate," Zhou said.

Scientists use the satellite-derived "greenness" of forest regions as one indicator of a forest's health. While this study looks specifically at the impact of a persistent drought in the Congo region since 2000, researchers say that a continued drying trend might alter the composition and structure of the Congo rainforest, affecting its biodiversity and carbon storage.

Previous research used satellite-based measurements of vegetation greenness to investigate changes in the Amazon rainforest, notably the effects of severe short-term droughts in 2005 and 2010. Until now, little attention has been paid to African rainforests, where ground measurements are even sparser than in the Amazon and where droughts are less severe but last longer.

To clarify the impact of long-term drought on the Congo rainforest, Zhou and colleagues set out to see whether they could detect a trend in a satellite measure of vegetation greenness called the Enhanced Vegetation Index. This measure is developed from data produced by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on NASA's Terra satellite. The scientists focused their analysis on intact, forested regions in the Congo Basin during the months of April, May and June each year - the first of the area's two peak rainy and growing seasons each year.

The study found a gradually decreasing trend in Congo rainforest greenness. The decrease, sometimes referred to as "browning," suggests a slow adjustment to the long-term drying trend. This is in contrast to the more immediate response seen in the Amazon, such as large-scale tree mortality, brought about by more episodic drought events.

The browning of the forest canopy is consistent with observed decreases in the amount of water available to plants, whether that is in the form of rainfall, water stored in the ground, water in near-surface soils, or water within the vegetation.

These changes in available water were detected in part with NASA satellites including the NASA/JAXA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, NASA's Quick Scatterometer (QuikScat), and NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, a joint mission with the German Aerospace Center. The latter two missions are managed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.

"Combining measurements from different sensors has given us more confidence in the results of the MODIS data and provided us with insights into the environmental and physiological mechanisms of the browning observed by the MODIS data," said co-author Sassan Saatchi of JPL.

Climate factors known to affect vegetation growth were also in line with the observed browning. Land surface temperatures, for example, were observed to increase over most of the study area. Decreased cloudiness allowed more solar radiation to reach the plants, which typically promotes photosynthesis, but in this case it likely posed an extra stress on the plants from the resulting depletion of soil moisture.

"Forests of the Congo Basin are known to be resilient to moderate climate change because they have been exposed to dry conditions in the past few hundred years," Saatchi said. "However, the recent climate anomalies as a result of climate change and warming of the Atlantic Ocean have created severe droughts in the tropics, causing major impacts on forests."

How the changes affect individual plant species in the area remains to be seen. For example, drier conditions may favor deciduous trees at the expense of evergreen trees.

"Our assessment is a step toward an improved understanding of how African rainforests respond to increasing drought," Zhou said. "We need to consider the complex range of processes affecting different tropical rainforest species before we can fully assess the future resilience of tropical forests."

The other authors for this research include Yuhong Tian at I.M. Systems Group, Inc. at the Center for Satellite Applications and Research, the science arm of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Satellite and Information Service, College Park, Md.; Ranga Myneni at Boston University in Massachusetts; Philippe Ciais at Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif sur Yvette Cedex, France; Yi Y. Liu at University of New South Wales, Australia; Shilong Piao at Peking University, China; Haishan Chen at Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, China; Eric Vermote of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.; and Conghe Song and Taehee Hwang at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

NASA monitors Earth's vital signs from land, air and space with a fleet of satellites and ambitious airborne and ground-based observation campaigns. NASA develops new ways to observe and study Earth's interconnected natural systems with long-term data records and computer analysis tools to better see how our planet is changing. The agency shares this unique knowledge with the global community and works with institutions in the United States and around the world that contribute to understanding and protecting our home planet.

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2014-124

East African countries are dealing with the impacts of climate change

Ugandans are already noticing climate change making weather patterns unpredictable, and other climate impacts

by Lauren Vallez and John Abraham, "Climate Consensus -- The 97%," The Guardian, March 17, 2014

Fishermen near an oil rig on the edge of Lake Albert in western Uganda. Photograph: Xan Rice.

As I have written before, I have a particular interest in smart energy sources for the developing world. Issues of climate change and energy supply meet as countries try to provide basic services for their populace. Some contrarian climate scientists have claimed that developing clean energy sources is unwise for these countries – insisting incorrectly that dirty energy is the future. Most of us are smarter than that. Most of us realize that deciding the best pathway forward requires balancing the costs of inaction with the costs of action. Let's not delude ourselves into thinking that countries are not already feeling the impact of climate change.

Part of my work involves helping countries chart wise energy pathways. My students also travel to developing countries and part of their work involves articulating the challenges and opportunities faced around the globe. This article is supplied by Ms. Lauren Vallez, a freshman student of engineering at the University of St. Thomas. This January, she was inUganda interviewing experts on the impacts and adaption strategies faced by that country. Here is what she found.

Spending time with friends in Uganda (courtesy of L. Vallez).

"This January, I found myself sitting across from Senior Human Resource Officer in the Department of Administration, Office of the President of Uganda. I wanted to know whether they were observing changes to their climate, what those changes were, and if plans for adaptation had been developed. Mr. Benon Twineobusingye, Senior Human Resource Manager in the Office of the President told me that they were already facing increased drought and changes to the hydrological cycle.

Much of the Ugandan economy is based on agriculture, a practice infused in their culture. Normally regular wet and dry periods have become more varied. He stated that they are, '…seeing drought. Serious drought that has not happened before. This drought has caused famine in parts of the country. In other parts, there has been too much rain.' He also told me, 'It has been very hot these days. Over the years it has gotten hotter with more unpredictable weather.'

But, unlike many countries which are inactive, Uganda has plans. From the top levels of government, they have enacted policies which encourage reforestation. They also are taking steps to preserve wetlands. Will these steps stop climate change? By no means. But they will help insulate Uganda and its neighbors from the impacts.

His anecdotal perceptions matched with what scientists expect. Uganda, and many other countries in Africa are at or near the equator. Atmospheric circulation patterns provide regular rainy-dry seasons but the water cycle is being modified. This modification may be occurring because of large scale circulation changes, perhaps it is associated with increases in evaporation and water-holding capacity of the air. Regardless of the cause, people in countries like Uganda live close to the ground, acutely aware of changes to seasonal weather. They have cultivated an agriculture based on traditions that are now being challenged.

Tea harvesting in Uganda, a country dependent on agricultural productivity (courtesy of L. Vallez).

I also spoke to Dr. Walaga Charles (Executive Director of Environmental Alert) who works on sustainability in Uganda. He concurred with Benon's assessment by telling me that there have been more unpredictable rainy seasons. They've observed shortened rainy seasons with crop failures. Although he believes rainfall will in general increase with climate change, the regularity will also change. They expect more flooding and saturated ground. I even observed such flooding during unexpected rains this January.

Flooding in the streets of the capital Kampala after a brief but unexpected rain (courtesy of L. Vallez)

But Dr. Walaga also told me that increases in temperature are increasing animal diseases and pests. For example, coffee rust is a leaf disease that is now being monitored. It used to be common in warm areas of the country but now is being found in new regions. The same is being observed with malaria.

He told me that Uganda has developed a climate change policy and an implementation plan. The government has established a climate change unit and is working to upgrade that unit into a department. International organizations such as the United Nations and the Global Environment Facility are providing funds to aid adaptation.

He also told me that Ugandan universities are performing research on climate change and are incorporating climate change into the curriculum. In particular, agricultural schools are developing climate change centers."

A master's degree student, Mr. Denis Bazalirwa, agrees. He told me,

'I agree there are significant changes in my country's climate. When I journeyed back there in December 2013, I noticed a change in both daytime and evening temperatures. Rarely did I observe people sleeping with fans and air conditioners but the rise in particular of night time temperatures has forced people to control the unbearable heat. Also, Uganda has two main weather seasons each year. Their timing, however, has changed and it is harder to tell when the current season will end.'

These comments show that on the ground, climate change is impacting peoples' lives, now. Not at some time in the future."

Ms. Vallez and Mr. Bazalirwa at Environment Alert, Uganda.

As you can see, Ms. Vallez's essay has articulated steps being taken in this quiet country in East Africa. We can see that much of their efforts are focused on adaption rather than mitigation. Of course that makes sense. While everyone needs to work harder to reduce emissions and limit future climate change, from a practical standpoint, it makes little sense for Uganda to act alone in the face of inaction from others.

We also see the fallacy of arguments that suggest developing clean energy and using energy more wisely would hurt the poor and developing regions of the globe. These countries are being affected now, with tremendous economic and societal impacts now. Had we had a bit more forethought years ago, had we worked harder to make each gallon of gasoline do more, we would have ended up saving money for ourselves, and we would have made things easier for countries that are being affected by climate change today, like Uganda.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/mar/17/east-africa-dealing-with-climate-change

John Abraham: Vulnerable to climate change, Cameroon tackles the problem head-on

Though particularly vulnerable to climate change, students in Cameroon are developing innovative technological solutions

by John Abraham, "Climate Consensus - The 97%," The Guardian, January 28, 2014

A man rides a bicycle in Cameroon; a country very vulnerable to climate change that it didn't cause, but developing innovative solutions to the problem. Photograph: Peter Treanor/Alamy

My research involves not only studying the Earth's climate, but also working to find clean energy solutions that will enable people and regions to have access to reliable electricity without increasing emissions of heat-trapping gases. In support of this effort, I recently traveled to Cameroon, which is on the western coast of Africa. There, in a town near the coast called Buea, I spent two weeks with my family and colleagues, working with a new university (Catholic University Institute of Buea, or CUIB for short) but more about that later.

First, readers of this column will note that I take a particular interest in the impacts of climate change that are being felt at regional or national levels. In particular, changes to weather patterns and how those changes are being driven by either natural or human causes is something I care deeply about. Fortunately, there is extensive literature available about observed changes or expected changes to climate and weather in and around Cameroon. For instance, some studies that focus on the impacts of climate change on the water cycle project that increases in rainfall and evaporation from lakes, rivers, oceans, and plants will have impacts that must be considered in future development planning.

Another study focused on the impacts that land-use changes and climate change have on Cameroon's forests; the study found future effects will be profound. Loss of forest lands will lead to loss of animal life in particular. More recent work confirms the vulnerability of Cameroon's forests to climate change. Those researchers found that while the people in Cameroon expressed a great deal of understanding and appreciation of climate change, the ability of the country to adapt to climate change was limited.

Perhaps the most detailed study regarding Cameroon's susceptibility to climate change was completed by the World Bank, which related agricultural output to climate change, in particular to changes in temperature and precipitation. The authors reported that since a large majority of the poor of Cameroon (and a significant percentage of the national GDP) work in agriculture, Cameroon as a nation is particularly sensitive to some of the changes we expect to see as the world warms.

And all of this brings us back to the university CUIB. I traveled there to find out what people on the ground observe. I spoke with the Dean of the School of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Dr. Laetitia Ako Kima. She told me,

"Farmers in this region are dependent on rain-fed agriculture and have observed erratic rainfall patterns and intensity which adversely affect agricultural activities and their livelihoods. Effects of this include among others, difficulty in following cropping calendars due to unpredictable and unseasonably long rainy periods, decline in crop yields, high disease incidence and crop losses, increased post-harvest losses and high labour costs, coupled with increasing incidents of HIV/AIDS.

These adversely affect their livelihoods, exacerbating already entrenched poverty which prevails at the grassroots level. There is therefore an urgent need for alternative coping strategies to mitigate prevailing circumstances."

Outdoor community classrooms at CUIB.

So, how will a country like Cameroon plan for climate change and how do universities like CUIB contribute to those plans? First, we must recognize that climate change is a global problem. Emitted greenhouse gases do not abide by borders, nor do their impacts. In fact, as we've seen elsewhere, Cameroon is another country that has largely not caused the problem but may be impacted more significantly than other nations. The reason for this is threefold. First, since Cameroon's annual temperatures are confined to a small range, the biological systems are less capable of adapting to changes that modify the range. Second, Cameroon is heavily dependent on agriculture, which, in turn, depends on climate. Finally, Cameroon's limited financial resources make adaptation particularly difficult.

Countries that contribute least to climate change tend to be the most vulnerable to its impacts, according to Samson et al. (2011).

Of course, Cameroon can, and will, play their role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However with a high unemployment rate and with challenges related to electrical power production and distribution, what can this country realistically achieve?

This was one of the questions I asked as I sat down with the Dean of the School Engineering, Dr. Asong Zisuh and his students. I quickly learned that innovative ideas from the young and entrepreneur-minded scientists and engineers might serve as a role model for us all. Dr. Asong Zisuh told me,

"The mission of CUIB (the entrepreneurial university) is to prepare servant leaders with moral and spiritual values to contribute to the sustainable development of their communities. Students are required to undertake entrepreneurial projects on issues related to sustainable development. Ongoing student projects in the the School of Engineering include: construction of wind turbines to generate clean and renewable electricity; construction of a solar drier to help conserve local farm products; drawing building plans for local housing that incorporate energy conservation practices; developing concepts for sustainable management of solid and liquid waste by local councils; biogas production for small scale use; and production of briquettes from bio-residues."

All of these very advanced and innovative ideas have been generated by enthusiastic undergraduate students. The young, it seems, express tremendous courage because they don't know what cannot be done. By this naïveté, they are sometimes able to accomplish what we old folks think is impossible.

The motivation for these environmental-conservation and climate change projects is not only related to the need to curb greenhouse gas emissions, but also to meet the growing demand for energy amidst huge supply shortages. Cameroon is a tropical country that receives a significant amount of daily sunshine and experiences a high generation rate of bio-residues, especially from agricultural activities. Thus, harnessing these available and inexpensive opportunities is required for the sustainable and economic development of the country.

Retrospectively, for someone like myself who works everyday on climate change, the slow progress can be demoralizing at times. I know that humans have the capacity to solve our climate and energy problems, we only lack the will. When I see what is happening at a small Cameroonian university that almost no one has heard of, I get encouraged. Maybe, just maybe, innovators like I've met at CUIB will be the change agents needed to preserve our future. Let's hope that's the case and let's support their efforts.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/jan/28/cameroon-vulnerable-tackles-climate-change

John Abraham: Global warming and energy – intertwined problems in Africa

Kenya is training for tomorrow's technology leaders to deal with today's climate and energy problems

by John Abraham, "Climate Consensus - The 97%," The Guardian, January 12, 2014

A young girl in northern Kenya digs a hole in a river bed to retrieve water. Parts of Kenya are hit by drought as other areas get excessive rains. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

Much of my work involves the design and installation of clean and robustenergy sources in remote parts of the world. On a recent trip to Kenya, my family had the opportunity to tour the Lake Naivasha region in Kenya. This region contains a treasure of wildlife and was a filming location for the movie "Out of Africa." During a boat ride, we witnessed the impacts on climate change – not through academic journal articles or conference presentations – but through people who see climate change with their own eyes.

In past years, Lake Naivasha had seen dramatic reductions in water level. The coastline had changed and plants and animals had adapted to a new normal. Recently, however, extreme rains have raised the waters approximately 4 meters according to our guide. The new waterline had submerged and killed beautiful Acacia trees. After conversations with many other Kenyans, it was apparent that the reliable wet-dry weather patterns had become more erratic; you didn't have to witness dying Acacia trees when farmers throughout the country told similar tales. Extreme weather swings were evident here before our eyes.

Flooding in Western Kenya, submerged buildings and Acacia trees.

Kenyan culture (and much of Africa) is deeply rooted in the patterns of weather and climate; much of their economy depends on agricultural production. That dependency has given them much clearer foresight than others about how to plan for the changed future.

The entirety of Kenya has awakened to the threats of climate change, including the government, agricultural sectors, energy industries and the educational system. My journey to learn more about Kenya's plans brought me to the beautiful and large Kenyatta University campus, just northeast of Nairobi. There, very new and quickly growing programs in mechanical engineering, energy and sustainability, and agricultural engineering are just a few of the programs training tomorrow's technology leaders to make an impact solving today's problems.

Among the many initiatives are goals to provide clean, renewable, and robust energy for the campus and the country. Some applications they are focusing on are wind-powered water-pumping systems. The plan is to design, manufacture, install, and service small-scale wind power systems that slowly pump water into elevated storage tanks throughout the day and night. Students, faculty, and staff draw the water is drawn down, typically during morning and evening hours. The prototype wind turbine will be adapted to manufacturing techniques used locally, near the university. It is hoped that wide-scale testing of the wind turbine system will occur over the next three years and thereafter, fast market penetration throughout Africa will be inevitable.

Another emerging technology coming from Kenyatta is the use of novel technologies for heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC). By using thermochemical sorption technologies, sometimes with solar heating, Dr. Jeremiah Kiplagat (recent recipient of the African Education Leadership Outstanding Professor Award) and his colleagues are setting the framework for improving the performance of refrigeration systems using these methodologies.

As a third example, a series of faculty-led student projects have been completed to develop solar concentrating and tracking systems for heat generation and photovoltaic power generation. The research teams have developed effective and simple means of moving reflecting mirrors and parabolic concentrators with the sun throughout the day to increase the amount of absorbed solar energy and increase the efficiency of the overall system.

While the faculty and staff are at the forefront in technology development projects such as these, much credit must be given to the administration. With implementation of new degrees such as doctoral programs in sustainability and masters programs in mechanical engineering, electrical engineering, engineering hydrology, and biomedical engineering, with a focus on solving the energy and health problems that are prevalent in the East African region, this university, and the country as a whole are destined to remain leaders in their geographical region.

It is clear from formal academic studies and from anecdotal evidence that developing countries that rely upon agriculture will suffer greatly from climate change in the coming decades. It is hence apparent that the solutions to climate change, such as accelerated implementation of clean and renewable power, must be implemented with great wisdom so that people in these regions are able to access the same low-cost electricity that other nations have enjoyed. In this regard, the climate-energy problem is often thought of as a double-edged sword – solutions to the climate problem make access to low-cost electricity more difficult.

Currently, the major source of energy in Kenya is hydropower. This is why the School of Engineering at Kenyatta University has also partnered with regional and international organizations to promote climate mitigation in water and energy sectors. An example is the research being carried out by Dr. Luke Olang in collaboration with IGAD climate center on developing a drought-monitoring tool for the greater horn of Africa in general. The same research team is also actively involved in water management strategies in the vulnerable Mara River Basin, considered a World Heritage site due to the Great Annual Wildebeest Migration.

What Kenyatta University is showing the world is that it is possible to solve both the energy and the climate problems together. Novel energy solutions using locally available technology and manufacturing techniques can build economies, provide low-cost energy, and preserve the future climate for our children. This type of systematic planning and dedication gives me hope that our future climate and energy problems can be solved.

Perhaps the vision is best expressed by Prof. Chris Shisanya, Dean School of Humanities and Social Sciences who told me,

"We at Kenyatta University have decided to prepare our students early enough during their study programmes to confront the challenges posed by climate change. We are now offering such courses as MSc. (Integrated Watershed Management) and MSc. (Climate Change and Sustainable Development), whose main focus is on adaptation to climate change. We believe that by exposing our students to such knowledge, they will be better equipped to help communities in Kenya's rural landscapes enhance their resilience to climate change impacts."

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/jan/12/global-warming-energy-intertwined-africa

Millions face starvation as world warms, say scientists. World is unprepared for changes that will see parts of Africa turned into disaster areas, say food experts

by John Vidal, The Observer, April 13, 2013  

Corn in the hands of a farmworker in South Africa. Photograph: Greatstock Photographic Library/Alamy

Millions of people could become destitute in Africa and Asia as staple foods more than double in price by 2050 as a result of extreme temperatures, floods and droughts that will transform the way the world farms.

As food experts gather at two major conferences to discuss how to feed the nine billion people expected to be alive in 2050, leading scientists have told the Observer that food insecurity risks turning parts of Africa into permanent disaster areas. Rising temperatures will also have a drastic effect on access to basic foodstuffs, with potentially dire consequences for the poor.

Frank Rijsberman, head of the world's 15 international CGIAR crop research centres, which study food insecurity, said: "Food production will have to rise 60% by 2050 just to keep pace with expected global population increase and changing demand. Climate change comes on top of that. The annual production gains we have come to expect … will be taken away by climate change. We are not so worried about the total amount of food produced so much as the vulnerability of the one billion people who are without food already and who will be hit hardest by climate change. They have no capacity to adapt."

America's agricultural economy is set to undergo dramatic changes over the next three decades, as warmer temperatures devastate crops, according to a US government report. The draft US National Climate Assessment report predicts that a gradually warming climate and unpredictable severe weather, such as the drought that last year spread across two-thirds of the continental United States, will have serious consequences for farmers.

The research by 60 scientists predicts that all crops will be affected by the temperature shift as well as livestock and fruit harvests. The changing climate, it says, is likely to lead to more pests and less effective herbicides. The $50bn Californian wine industry could shrink as much as 70% by 2050.

The report lays bare the stark consequences for the $300bn US farm industry, stating: "Many agricultural regions will experience declines in crop and livestock production. The rising incidence of weather extremes will have increasingly negative impacts on crop and livestock production. Climate disruptions have increased in the recent past and are projected to increase further over the next 25 years.

"Critical thresholds are already being exceeded. Many regions will experience declines in crop and livestock production from increased stress due to weeds, diseases, insect pests and other climate change-induced stresses. Climate disruptions to agricultural production have increased in the recent past and are projected to increase further".

Lead author Jerry Hatfield, director of the US government's national laboratory for agriculture and the environment, said that climate change was already causing weather extremes to worsen. Very hot nights, fewer cool days and more heatwaves, storms and floods have already devastated crops and will have "increasingly negative" impacts, he said.

The report follows recent disastrous harvests in Russia, Ukraine, Australia and the US. In 2010, climate-driven factors led to a 33% drop in wheat production in Russia and a 19% drop in Ukraine. Separate climate events in each case led to a 14% drop in Canada's wheat output, and a 9% drop in Australia.

A separate US government-funded study of the fertile Lower Mekong basin, which includes Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Laos, states that temperatures there could rise twice as much as previously expected, devastating food supplies for the 100 million people expected to live there by 2050. "We've found that this region is going to experience climate extremes in temperature and rainfall beyond anything that we expected", says Jeremy Carew-Reid, author of the Climate Change Adaptation and Impact Study for the Lower Mekong.

Two major food security summits are being held in Ireland, organised by UN World Food Programme, the CGIAR Research Programme on Climate Change and the Mary Robinson Climate Justice foundation.

Ertharin Cousin, the UN's World Food Programme director, said: "We are entering an uncertain and risky period. Climate change is the game changer that increases exposure to high and volatile food prices, and increases the vulnerability of the hungry poor, especially those living in conflict zones or areas of marginal agricultural productivity. We must act quickly to protect the world's poorest people."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2013/apr/13/climate-change-millions-starvation-scientists